El Nino

> many tks Jo
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> my earlier understanding of this was a "minor" event that would bring earlier and heavier rains.
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> Iringa rains usually begin mid December, not yet sure if recent heavy rain is indicative of more to come.
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> that note from Onesmo in the Selous is surely indicative of earlier than normal heavy rains. I recall staff needed to evacuate the Selous before mid February.
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> Singida rains early and you guys up north doing rather well at the mo.
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> the 97 / 98 event hit Tarangire just before Xmas.
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> there are surely a range of web sites to check out, all it needs is for someone to break a leg and have time !!!!!!!!!
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> whatever, it does look as though any inland waterbird counts in January will be pretty much a waste of time as they were in 98.
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> Neil
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Jo Anderson
> To: TZ Bird Atlas
> Cc: Neil and Liz Baker Private
> Sent: Tuesday, November 10, 2009 8:15 AM
> Subject: El Nino
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> I keep reading confused and badly researched articles relating to El Nino and its imminent arrival in East Africa. I cannot be sure whether it is the Tanzanian Met Office or just how their announcements are being reported, but it doesn't take much internet research to see that the assumption that an El Nino effect similar to that of 1997-98 is about to strike East Africa is doubtful if not downright wrong.
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> As the selected paragraphs below show, El Nino events come at 2-7 year intervals, which is why we have already experienced an El Nino since the 1997-98 one; it was in 2006-07. We all remember those rains... especially if you were driving a Toyota (sorry couldn't resist!). What are referred to as "Major ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) events" occur in periods of between every 10-50 years.
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> Key to note here: second paragraph below, "An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 ".... Which puts the press reports about Moshi being washed away a la 1998 into perspective.
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> People have short memories, except when it comes to extreme weather events, and in such cases their entire analysis of weather, climate and local conditions is biased.
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> From our friends at Wikipedia....
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> "The most recent occurrence of El Niño started in September 2006[33] and lasted until early 2007.[34] From June 2007 on, data indicated a moderate La Niña event, which strengthened in early 2008 and weakened by early 2009; the 2007-2008 La Niña event was the strongest since the 1988-1989 event. According to NOAA, El Niño conditions have been in place in the equatorial Pacific Ocean since June 2009. Therefore the 2009/2010 season is expected to be an El Niño year.[35]
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> The major 1982-83 El Niño lead to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period from 1990-1994 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession.[48] An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world?s reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5°C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25°C associated with El Niño events.[49] Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered ?severe bleaching?.[50]
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> Major ENSO events were recorded in the years 1790-93, 1828, 1876-78, 1891, 1925-26, 1972-73, 1982-83, and 1997-98.[36] Recent El Niños have occurred in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007."
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> All good reasons to not put our faith in irregular and random weather events, but to start thinking about pro-actively facing up to and managing what we have around us. Time to stop spending time and money preparing to El Nino, which right now seems to be deflecting attention away from real every day issues.
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> Jo.
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> Jo Anderson MA (Oxon)
> Owner and Director
> Ecological Initiatives Ltd (formerly Oliver?s Camp Ltd)
> Arusha, Tanzania.
>
> email: jo@ei-tz.com
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> Cell: +255 784 267205
>
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>
> Neil and Liz Baker, Tanzania Bird Atlas, P.O. Box 1605, Iringa, Tanzania.
> Mobiles: 0776-360876 and 0776-360864.
> http://tanzaniabirdatlas.com
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